Fact Check: Study on Pfizer vaccine effectiveness in children finds negative VE after 4-6 months

Pfizer BNT162b2 2 dose Vaccine Effectiveness wanes quickly

A new study has found that the Pfizer vaccine is inadequate for protecting against an Omicron pandemic in the age group 12-15 years old.

The study released on May 13, 2022, Association of Prior BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination With Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents During Omicron Predominance, published on JAMA network, has found quickly waning Pfizer vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the Omicron variant.

For adolescents, after 4 months the VE crosses over the zero line, and at 7 months VE is -20%, which indicates that, for the Omicron variant, natural immunity is more effective at preventing infection from around 4-6 months after vaccination.

The vaccine had not apparently not been available long enough for children aged 5-11 to be able to see if this is the same for that age group.

A vaccine effectiveness of 60% is sufficient to prevent an epidemic if coverage is 100% but VE must be at least 80% if the coverage is 75%.

The VE initially of BNT162b2 2nd dose is 60%, with an uncertainty that means it might be no more than 45%, and wanes quickly to below 20% within two months.

The figure of <20% after 1 month means that the Pfizer vaccine rapidly becomes woefully inadequate to protect this population against the virus. Considering the mildness of the Omicron variant, particularly for children, the fact that the initial VE of 60% so quickly wanes, the practical impossibility of achieving 100% coverage, and the dangers of myo-peri-carditis and other side effects particularly for adolescent boys, the BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination appears to be completely ineffective at preventing a pandemic and is doing more harm than good.

It begs the question of why anyone is vaccinating their children with this ineffective treatment.

Even if 100% coverage was possible in the short window available (mere days) in which effectiveness is around 60%, the uncertainty level of this data means that it is not possible to say with any certainty that it could stop a pandemic.

The mildness of the Omicron variant has certainly been a blessing.

I can’t help suspecting that if the 5-11 age group data was available for a longer time frame, that a similar result would be apparent.

References

Katherine E. Fleming-Dutra, MD; Amadea Britton, MD; Nong Shang, PhD; Gordana Derado, PhD; Ruth Link-Gelles, PhD; Emma K. Accorsi, PhD; Zachary R. Smith, MA; Joseph Miller, PhD; Jennifer R. Verani, MD; Stephanie J. Schrag, DPhil Association of Prior BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination With Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children and Adolescents During Omicron Predominance, JAMA. Published online May 13, 2022. doi:10.1001/jama.2022.7493 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2792524

Bartsch, S. M., O'Shea, K. J., Ferguson, M. C., Bottazzi, M. E., Wedlock, P. T., Strych, U., McKinnell, J. A., Siegmund, S. S., Cox, S. N., Hotez, P. J., & Lee, B. Y. (2020). Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention. American journal of preventive medicine, 59(4), 493–503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7361120/