I emailed the stroke foundation and received this reply:
Hi - - -
Thank you for your kind words and for your question about childhood stroke figures. I have passed your question onto - - - our Stroke Content Coordinator. Here is his response.
One of our main clinical experts Mark Mackay from the Royal Children’s Hospital, is also on the Stroke Foundation Clinical Council. According to this profile of him from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, https://www.mcri.edu.au/brilliantminds/Dr-Mark-Mackay one of his research interests is “establishing studies to measure the true incidence of childhood stroke”. He is probably the best-informed in this area, but he is still trying to find the correct answer.
In that profile he also says “About three to 10 children per 100,000 will suffer a stroke.” According to the estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/sep-2021 , in June 2021 there were 5,670,079 people in Australia under the age of 18 (I added up the numbers for ages 0 to 17 inclusive). Going by the rates given by Mark Mackay, that would mean between 170 and 567 strokes in that population. The upper bound in that calculation seems to me the likely source of the estimate of “up to 600”.
Some more detail is given in the 2017 Guideline for the diagnosis and acute management of childhood stroke, of which Mark Mackay was also the chair. The introduction says:
“In developed countries, the reported incidence of stroke in children over one month of age ranges from 1.2 to eight per 100,000 per year (1-4). For neonates (less than 1 month of age) and preterm babies the incidence of stroke is significantly higher occurring one in every 2500 to 4000 live births (2, 4). In Australia, the actual incidence of childhood stroke remains unknown. In 2016 children accounted for approximately 22% or 4.88 million of Australia’s total population, and 305,337 newborn babies were registered (5). The application of international incidence rates would therefore estimate there to be between 58 and 390 strokes in children, and between 76 and 122 strokes in newborn infants, each year in Australia. Systematic collection of patient data across tertiary paediatric centres is planned following implementation of the Clinical Guidelines to gather epidemiological data on the incidence, causes of, and outcomes following childhood stroke in the Australian population.”
Adding up the numbers for children and newborns gives a maximum of 512 strokes, which given that the population was slightly lower then is roughly consistent with the broader estimate above, but also the older figure of 300-500 strokes.
It’s important to note though that, as with many stroke statistics, these are estimates based on previous epidemiological studies. The quote above states that they’re planning to do systematic data collection to get the true numbers, but as far as I know that data doesn’t exist yet. So when the figure goes up that is more likely due to population increases, together with using a slightly different range of estimates.
I emailed the stroke foundation and received this reply:
Hi - - -
Thank you for your kind words and for your question about childhood stroke figures. I have passed your question onto - - - our Stroke Content Coordinator. Here is his response.
One of our main clinical experts Mark Mackay from the Royal Children’s Hospital, is also on the Stroke Foundation Clinical Council. According to this profile of him from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, https://www.mcri.edu.au/brilliantminds/Dr-Mark-Mackay one of his research interests is “establishing studies to measure the true incidence of childhood stroke”. He is probably the best-informed in this area, but he is still trying to find the correct answer.
In that profile he also says “About three to 10 children per 100,000 will suffer a stroke.” According to the estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/sep-2021 , in June 2021 there were 5,670,079 people in Australia under the age of 18 (I added up the numbers for ages 0 to 17 inclusive). Going by the rates given by Mark Mackay, that would mean between 170 and 567 strokes in that population. The upper bound in that calculation seems to me the likely source of the estimate of “up to 600”.
Some more detail is given in the 2017 Guideline for the diagnosis and acute management of childhood stroke, of which Mark Mackay was also the chair. The introduction says:
“In developed countries, the reported incidence of stroke in children over one month of age ranges from 1.2 to eight per 100,000 per year (1-4). For neonates (less than 1 month of age) and preterm babies the incidence of stroke is significantly higher occurring one in every 2500 to 4000 live births (2, 4). In Australia, the actual incidence of childhood stroke remains unknown. In 2016 children accounted for approximately 22% or 4.88 million of Australia’s total population, and 305,337 newborn babies were registered (5). The application of international incidence rates would therefore estimate there to be between 58 and 390 strokes in children, and between 76 and 122 strokes in newborn infants, each year in Australia. Systematic collection of patient data across tertiary paediatric centres is planned following implementation of the Clinical Guidelines to gather epidemiological data on the incidence, causes of, and outcomes following childhood stroke in the Australian population.”
Adding up the numbers for children and newborns gives a maximum of 512 strokes, which given that the population was slightly lower then is roughly consistent with the broader estimate above, but also the older figure of 300-500 strokes.
It’s important to note though that, as with many stroke statistics, these are estimates based on previous epidemiological studies. The quote above states that they’re planning to do systematic data collection to get the true numbers, but as far as I know that data doesn’t exist yet. So when the figure goes up that is more likely due to population increases, together with using a slightly different range of estimates.
I hope this is helpful,
If you need us again, please don’t hesitate to contact us on StrokeLine 1800 787 653 or email strokeline@strokefoundation.org.au
Kind regards,
- - -